Discussion: how to find out, if my racers offspring will run under 2.00 or do good in comps later?

[FameDaLupa]

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Discussion: how to find out, if my racers offspring will run under 2.00 or do good in comps later?


This thread is inspired by discussions in the chat and from a pm I got recently.
I dont have the answers, but I have made a few observations. And anyone who wants to, can add their own experiences and thoughts to it.

1. Local comps
Can entering my foal as a newborn in local comps help me find out, if this foal, will be good racehorse later?

So I rather kept a foal, that was running: 2.20/2.19/2.18/2.17 than a foal, that is running 2.25, for example.
2.17 has been the best result I have gotten so far.
However the chances are high that you have a good foal, which means the win % might be over 85%/90%, but I really cant say at all, that the times, newborn foals run in local racing comps (btw. I use the Lvl. 10 comps), are a garantee that they will run under 2.00min later.
I got dissapointed here a lot and a few others have experienced the same I guess.
So thats that. However I found out something else, which appeared quite strange to me in the first place and I will link a few horses as examples.
And I would find it very interessting, if others have made similiar experiences.
I though at first, It might be just a coinsidens and but then it happend with three horses exactly the same.
I for myself will experiment a bit with that observation, so here we go:


2. Specific temperament changes while growing up
My Observation was, that if temperament changed in a certain time frame, all the foals, I then trained ran under 2.00, even under 1.59

I missed writing down the exact age, when the temperament changes, but I will try to make it as accurate as possible.

These are the three horse for example:

♕ Rhaego 01:58.70 ♕

♕ Medandrou 01:58.75 ♕

♕ Arvak 01:58.59 ♕


These three foals were all born calm and that wouldnt change maybe for a year ( having yellow corn between 60% - 100% + if old enough sweet feed), than it would change to even-tempered.
Another year, or a half and in changes to spirited and than every breeder gets that cringe moment, when they are afraid, that the horses temperament wont change anymore or right in time under 3 years old.
All the colts changed to high strung in the last second. The timeframes were exactly the same. And all colts are running now under 1.59.

I have a little problem with Arvak he was running 01:58.59 as a colt, in the local comps, which would have been a new record. But he refuses to run like this in the actual competitions^^. Which will lead me to another point, which I will come back to in a second.

♕ Zeragio 01:59.09 ♕


This little racer behaved exactly as the other three gentleman.
But he changed to high strung to early, which is why he cant be used as an example for my theory. I have to say though, he still is a great horse, but he isnt as specials as the other three named colts

But whenever the temperament changed in that specific way, I was certain, that I would have an amazing racer in the end.
And I get it, that like its pretty normal, that the temperament changes over the time with the right feeding.
But usually the offspring gets high strung pretty fast, like already after 6 months, or their get stuck sometimes on a "lower" temperament. But with these three colts, temperament just behaved just differently and I have seen a lot of racers grow up.
Especially important i find that part, where they stay spirited for so very long, and then in the just very last moment they jump to high strung.
I just thought I want to share this observation with you.

3. How much does my horse weight?

Its pretty obvious to most of us, that a racer has to be moderatly thin (I have red sometimes thin will work as well),but I never have considered the actually lbs, of the horses, even while still staying in moderatly thin.
I got this tip from someone in the chat, I cant really remember who it was. It might have been "horzelover", but I am not sure. But this was really helpful. I always thought I am on the safe side, if I just keep my horses moderatly thin, but within this, there is also a bit of room to play with to really get the best out of your horse!★
So try different weights and observe how the results in local comps might change.


Of course, to get a great racehorse you have to breed the right horses together and have a thoughtful breeding concept. But once that foal is born and I got this question quite a lot and also asked this myself, these are the observations I made and this is how I try to select my offspring.

Its a process
I am exited for your thoughts, experiences or disagreements

Kind regards, stay safe and healthy
FameDaLupa

[Veterinarian]

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Thank you for this FameDaLupa!

Personally, all of the horses that I own and have given me results under 2 mins were foals whose temperament changed before they were 2 years old or before they were 2y and 4m old.

I do not know if the age your horse's temperament changes matters. Also, I think it is important for me to say that I do not use the method you use when you raise the horses' temperament.

I usually train my horses right away and the method I use is:
The foals (since I start their training when they are Newborn) are kept in pastures until they turn 6m old. This helps me avoid losing energy (because they are not fed enough)
When they turn 6m old I move them in barns where they are fed Weight gain mix. (I have tried feeding them yellow corn and seed feed together but my foals can't take much of the feed which ends up in not being able to get a 100% energy the next turn)
When they turn 2y old (where suddenly their max feed kg is around 20) then I give them the yellow corn feed.

So even if when the temp changes are important if we do not follow the same methods of raising the horse's temp I do not think that it will be the same for everyone.

I do think that what temp your horse had when they were born is important (or when you start testing them in level 10 comps). A foal born Spirited should have better results than a foal born Calm if they are competed when they are newborns.

____

02:19.49


You can see that this colt's best result when he was a foal was 02:19.49 minutes (I only compete my horses 5 times in level 10 shows when they are foals) To be fair he has came close to going under 2 minutes (02:00.01) but I think what is holding him back is the fact that he has 56 speed confo (his confo has dropped even if we cannot currently see what the mare's speed confo is).

He has a really good HGP (67k ) and gold comments in both speed and stamina as well as good confo in Strength and stamina (Strength 32, Stamina 48).

02:17.5


I was really excited when I first saw this mare. Even though her HGP was not something really good like the colt's above considering that they both come from the same (66k HGP) sire, her HGP had at least gotten up. I overlooked the fact that her stamina comment was still blank (white/not green nor gold nor red) and I immediately focused on the fact that her speed confo was 62! (From a 59 sire and a 62 dam). Then I competed her in level 10 shows and I saw that she gave me an amazing result of 02:17.5 minutes and I thought that she at least would definitely go under 2 minutes (maybe even under 01:59 minutes ).

Then she was fully trained when she was 2y and 4m as per usual and I started competing her in level 10 local shows. To my surprise, she did not even come close to going under 02:01 minutes!

I again got disappointed and then I thought that it had something to do with the HGP. So I got this colt who had a good HGP of 64k and it reminded me of the first horse that I linked because of the low-speed confo (even lower now) I was expecting the same result in the foal comps but I got an even better one 02:17.56 minutes! Again the colt turned to have awful results in Racing.

I think that the results in the foal comps actually show you what their win % will be since I clearly remember that for example, this colt who has run under 2 mins gave me results of 02:20 mins and his win % is awful (while my 02:19.49 has worse results but a better win %)

Let's compare them *** larrisar has mentioned that the speed comment they get might be better or worse than the actual comment they should have gotten so I am going to judge it on if it is gold or not

02:19.49/02:20.?
Speed confo: 56/60
Speed comment: gold/green
Stam confo: 48/41
Stam comment: gold/green
Strength confo: 32/35
Strength comment: blank/blank
HGP: 67k/65k
Results: 02:00.01/01:59.7
Win %: (out of 58 starts) 86.2%/ (out of 60 starts) 65%

So the 02:19.49 colt has 5/9 and the 02:20.? colt has 3/9
The only thing that I can see that is slowing the 02:19.49 horse down is his speed confo because other than that (and the strength confo) he is better than the 02:20.? horse even though he has worse competitions results.

So why did my 02:20.? colt manage to go under 2mins while my 02:19.49 horse did not? Maybe the score they get is actually telling us as well if the horse will have a good win % or not.

You mentioned that some horses when fully trained in local shows give you results like 01:59.36 (what my p2:20.? horse has given me) but cannot seem to be able to get that score in competitions. Maybe local shows have are easier than the player made comps (they do not slow down your horses too much).

EDIT:

I am currently working on a project to help with this theory and my conclusion is that we should comp our untrained foals for at least 6m as weird as it sounds. My (good) fully trained horses take 6 and more months to show me good results in Racing local shows so for the theory of competing them in local shows we probably have to give them more chances (turns) to show us their potential