Another breed creation question

[Rose90067]

So, I've been working on a breed creation project for a little while now. Sometimes I have a lot of success quickly, others it takes a longgg time lol. I've actually felt like I was having a lot of success with my recent project until my mares threw these two horses:

https://www.horseworldonline.net/horse/profile/3710315
https://www.horseworldonline.net/horse/profile/3710312

My previous understanding was that if I had the right breeds in the mix, and the foals were born with 4/4 eval for my target breed, I would end up with the target breed, but these two horses are exactly that (for latvian harness) but are not my target breed, they are just a mix.

Is is just that not every 4/4 eval foal will pick up the breed? Or have I messed up somewhere else? Would love to here any input on this so I can add it to my breed creation notes

[Cypress Creek Elites]

Evaluations are out of 5, not 4. Sometimes 4s will turn out the resulting breed anyways, but not all the time.

[Rose90067]

Evaluations are out of 5, not 4. Sometimes 4s will turn out the resulting breed anyways, but not all the time.

Okay ty! What if they are overall 5*? These two are 5

[BlackOak2]

Evaluations are out of 5, not 4. Sometimes 4s will turn out the resulting breed anyways, but not all the time.

Okay ty! What if they are overall 5*? These two are 5

Even perfectly evaluated foals are still a coin-flip whether they'll be the new breed or not. In the past, we've even had 3-star foals born of the correct breed, although that's incredibly rare.

But if you've had 5 star (or even 4 star) foals born from a specific pair, keep going, one of these times, your new breed will be born.

[Royale Ranch]

Okay ty! What if they are overall 5*? These two are 5

Even perfectly evaluated foals are still a coin-flip whether they'll be the new breed or not. In the past, we've even had 3-star foals born of the correct breed, although that's incredibly rare.

But if you've had 5 star (or even 4 star) foals born from a specific pair, keep going, one of these times, your new breed will be born.

Just to second what Blackoak has said... its a game of chance. Personally, I often breed the same pair 3-4 times when attempting to create a new breed. 3 of the times you can have foals that totally miss the evaluation, and once its a hit...