Horse Populations and Herd Size

[Argent]

I've been poking around a few other sites lately, trying to get an estimate of what is a typical number active horses, and I'm finding that the numbers are really scattered. I initially started looking into this because Larissa was trying to establish a minimum number of horses required in order for a breed to appear in the adoption center. The first number was 100, about a year ago, and then it was bumped up to 1000. When we found that some sites only have a couple thousand horses in their most popular breeds, the number was dropped to 250 or 500. But what I'm seeing now is that, naturally, the number of available breeds is a large determiner of the average and extreme populations in the game. On E-R, where all breeds are available, the five or so most populous breeds have only a couple thousand horses, while the rest barely clear a couple hundred in most cases. On EqC, with only 10 pure breeds (and 9 cross breeds), even the least popular breed has 6k active horses, while the most popular has 18k. Oddly enough, EqC has only 8.7k registered accounts, but appears to have 125k active horses, whereas E-R has 174k registered accounts and only 15k active horses. I believe E-R nearly closed due to inactivity a few years back, and EqC is only a couple year old, so that may be skewing things. For comparison, HP, which allows all breeds, has 37k accounts and 77k horses; EV, which allows 35 breeds, has 84k accounts and 14.7k active horses (58.5k if you count frozen horses, an average of 1.7k per breed, and a range of 300 to 5900).

HWO itself presents a complication because all breeds are possible, but initially not all are available. To be honest, I think most breeds will never be created, or at least will only be created as intermediaries to a more popular breed and then effectively go extinct (which brings up an interesting situation: if the number of horses in the game drops below the minimum to be in the adoption center, does that breed disappear from the AC?). I think the game will primarily function as a limited-breed site, so the average population in each breed would probably be relatively high. The question is, does the expectation that desirable breeds will have populations in the four digits mean the minimum population required to appear in the AC should be higher, or should it fall low enough that even the unwanted, intermediary breeds show up in the AC eventually? Does it matter?

And for me, because I'm curious and getting the idea that I'm strange: What do you consider an effective herd size? I'm assuming this depends heavily on gaming strategy, so how do you like to play? I personally find myself playing with rather large herds/kennels as of the last several years. I like to maintain a relatively closed population, often with several family lines, but I'm also particular about keeping inbreeding low and genetic diversity high, which requires either a large pool of breeding animals, or outcrossing. I also focus on only a single breed, because I find multiples distracting.

[Valkyriea]

For me a effective herd size is 50-100 horses and around 30 horses that I actually train and show. Breeding on the other hand I like to have diversity especially in a game like this where you can have so many different and unique horses. I like to keep inbreeding at a low and concentrate on a single breed as I try and make my way up to the Canadian warm blood.

Now finding a suitable amount for the AC would be difficult and I feel like 250 is too low for some breeds but also too high for others. Meanwhile comparison to other games Can be iffy as some of the play styles are relatively different, like some for instance are very old school and there wasn't much of "taking care of your horse" and more just entering shows and gaining points, were others are more detailed like EV. So it's rather hard trying to find a medium here that's relatively suitable.

[Raikit]

I just wanted to let you know that looking at the active number of horses on E-R even as far back as April will be quite inaccurate if you're looking at the Advanced version. Things like breeding and importing were taken offline to be adjusted and currently the entirety of Advanced is down as it is transitioning to closed beta.

However you can get a better idea of things if you look at Vintage. There are currently about 6.3k registered users and 44.4k horses. A bit fewer than half of the 44k horses are still young enough to be considered active, though whether or not they are is unknown. Of those horses the vast majority belong to the more popular breeds - Thoroughbreds, Arabians, Andalusians, etc. I believe this is due not just to popularity but also to the fact that it is easier to improve on a breed if you are not the only one working with it. I am the sole Tchenarani breeder on E-R and I'm one of the few people working with a rare breed. I've seen others try (including with the Tchenis) and give up because things aren't moving fast enough - precisely because there aren't a lot of people working with the breed.

Now, as for Adoption Center thresholds, that's a bit of a fluid issue. I feel like instead of just setting a number and saying that if a breed has that many it'll be in the AC it should be more like a percentage. Like you would take the most populous breeds (say the top five or something similar) and average the number of horses in those breeds. Then you take a percentage of that - say between 5 and 10 percent, as an example - and if a breed has a population greater than or equal to that percentage they will show up in the AC. Yes, I realize this is a lot more difficult to code and keep track of than if you just say set it at such-and-such a number and leave it at that, but I feel like the extra work that went into it would be worthwhile. (I do have a Bachelor's of CS so I realize the large differences in the coding that would need to be done.) It could also be one of those things where you could set a number before a percentage system is activated (just to make sure things started showing up in the AC) and activate the percentage system later, but that's a slightly different matter.

[Dracarys]

When your talking about other breeds, HWO is actually very different because it allows for other horses to be created rather then breeds being bought or adopted when you first start the game. This is turn has it's advantages and drawbacks. Advantages because it allows for uses to create and breed the bloodline they want but also doesn't uses to get the breed they ultimately want straight away if it isn't available. This I understand from your post.

This is why I think Radikit has an amazing idea of the percentages of the most popular breeds, which are as it stands Akal Teke and Thoroughbred. What I think should happen is when a breed gets created and becomes popular enough like those breeds it should go in the adoption center. Not only does it become easier to access those breeds but also it encourages newer players because they know that if they becomes involved in the game and work towards a new breed their efforts wont be in vain and the breed will eventually be in the adoption center.

[MuddyPuddles]

I prefer the idea of the percentages rather than a set number for the AC threshold. I'm also very new to the game so not completely sure on how any future updates will progress as of yet, but I have played another game where certain rarer colours of horses could randomly be captured. I like the idea of something along those lines being implemented for the rarer breeds to enable them to make an appearance in the game.
My only concern with the very popular breeds being easily accessible in the AC is that they end up being grabbed by new players and over running the place (as TB's have done on another game I have played and have completely devalued many lesser known breeds) I would hope it is encouraged to work towards creating your own breed lines rather than waiting until someone else has done all the hard work to enable them to appear in the AC.

[Argent II]

E-R has consistently had only a few breeds dominating the population for many years now, so the timeline is irrelevant.

I'm perfectly aware of how HWO is set up, as laid out in my first post. This isn't a matter of if other breeds will be added to the AC, but when, also already addressed.

A percentage is problematic precisely because some breeds will be much more popular than others. If the cut off is 10% of the average of the top 5 breeds is used, then at this exact moment, 241 horses would be required for a breed to appear in the AC. That's with 8000 members and maybe 25000 horses. As HWO grows, the disparity between horse populations will only get larger, making it even more difficult for new breeds to be added to the AC.

[Raikit]

I apologize if I did not get my point across correctly in the beginning of my previous post. You were comparing the number of active horses to the number of active users, and I wanted to point out that if you were using E-R Advanced to compare users to horses the numbers were going to be greatly affected by factors other than gameplay. And yes, E-R has always been dominated by a few specific breeds, but I mentioned the relationship between breed populations because I wanted to convey my opinion as to why there is such a large disparity and why that disparity is so hard to overcome.

I also realize that you know how HWO is set up. I was offering an alternate solution - not trying to argue or say you were wrong, just giving a different idea. (I also don't see where in my post I appeared to suggest that I thought other breeds being added to the AC was in doubt.)

The 10% was only an example number. The percentage could be as high or as low as whoever sets it up wants it to be. My point is that a hard number is not necessarily the best idea and that there are multiple ways to approach the issue. I'm also /not/ saying that a hard number /can't/ be the best idea. I'm saying that there /options/ and they might be worth considering.

[GlacierLake]

I am very new to HWO but I have played ALL, yes ALL of the other horse breeding-farming-training-racing-showing games that are online. I am enjoying HWO very much, because it is a challenge. Everyone feels a since of accomplishment to breed a new breed. So finding Thoroughbreds in the AC would only increase that breed and hurt the other breeds in the AC even more.

I have checked all the breeds that have zero horses at this time. There are two breeds that could be added to the AC which would help those breeds but also the breeds beyond them in their heirarchy. These are the two breeds...

(Rhinelander Heavy Draft)
It develops two breeds. Of those two breeds the...
Rhinelander develops one breed, the...
Mechlenburg which develops six breeds. Of which the ...
Russian Trotter develops one breed.
So the (Rhinelander Heavy Draft) in the AC would increase 11 new breeds and the demand for 15 breeds already populated.

(Cheju)
It develops one breed. Of which the...
Hokkaido develops three breeds. Of those the...
Tokara develops one breed, the...
Noma Pony develops two breeds.
So the (Cheju) in the AC would increase 8 new breeds and the demand for 5 breeds already populated.

Just an idea for a different perspective of adding new breeds to the Adoption Center.

[Argent II]

Only the first paragraph was directed at you, Raikit; the second was toward Dracarys.

By that logic, GlacierLake, adding the Thoroughbred would increase over 100 breeds.

[Raikit]

Ah, okay. I'm sorry if I appeared defensive.